摘要
针对季节性流感防控中行为干预难以量化的问题，本文提出了一个SVEIR传染病动力学模型体系，整合了疫苗接种、动态防控措施和公众行为反馈机制，以研究季节性流感的传播规律。通过引入时变参数，模型准确刻画了流感的季节性特征。理论分析表明：当基本再生数 时，无病平衡点局部渐近稳定。基于甘肃 省2012-2023年流感数据的验证显示，模型预测与实际流行趋势高度一致。研究成果为流感防控策略的制定提供了重要的理论依据和实践指导。为政府部门设计“平急结合”防控体系提供量化工具。
关键词： 季节性流感；疫苗接种；动态防控；行为干预；参数拟合
Abstract
To address the challenge of quantifying behavioral interventions in seasonal influenza control, this study proposes an SVEIR infectious disease dynamics modeling framework that integrates vaccination, dynamic prevention measures, and public behavioral feedback mechanisms to investigate the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza. By incorporating time-varying parameters, the model accurately captures the seasonal characteristics of influenza. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number . Validation using influenza surveillance data from Gansu Province (2012-2023) shows strong agreement between model predictions and actual epidemic trends. The research provides important theoretical foundations and practical guidance for formulating influenza control strategies, offering government agencies a quantitative tool for designing a "routine-emergency integrated" prevention and control system.
Key words： Seasonal influenza; Vaccination; Dynamic prevention and control; Behavioral intervention; Parameter fitting
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