摘要
目的 分析人均GDP、人均当前卫生支出等经济社会因素对不同收入国家婴儿死亡率的影响程度。方法 以高、中、低收入国家2000-2016年婴儿死亡率为因变量，人均GDP、人均当前卫生支出、总生育率、小学生总毕业率、谷物产量、CO2排放量等经济社会因素为自变量，进行岭回归分析，通过比较标准化回归系数绝对值大小，分析各自变量对婴儿死亡率的影响大小。结果 高（k=0.159，F=93.766，P=0.000，R2=0.983）、中（k=0.069，F=224.115，p=0.000，R2=0.993）、低（k=0.173，F=123.357，P=0.000，R2=0.987）收入国家的岭回归方程F检验差异均有统计学意义，不同收入国家除高收入国家总生育率外（t=0.429，P=0.677）其他回归系数的t检验差异均有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。高收入国家岭回归方程标准准化回归系数绝对值前二位是人均当前卫生支出、人均GDP，中等收入国家为总生育率、谷物产量，低收入国家为总生育率、小学生总毕业率。结论 人均GDP、人均当前卫生支出是高收入国家但不是中、低收入国家婴儿死亡率的主要经济社会影响因素。不同经济社会因素对不同收入国家婴儿死亡率的影响程度大小不一、影响顺位各有差别，防控策略应各有侧重。
关键词： 婴儿死亡率；人均GDP；人均当前卫生支出；岭回归分析
Abstract
Objective To analyze the impact of economic and social factors such as per capita GDP and per capita current health expenditure on infant mortality in different income countries. Methods Taking the infant mortality rate in high, middle and low-income countries from 2000 to 2016 as the dependent variable, and the per capita GDP, per capita current health expenditure, total fertility rate, total graduation rate of primary school students, grain production, and CO2 emissions as the independent variables, ridge regression analysis was carried out. By comparing the absolute values of standardized regression coefficients, the impact of each variable on infant mortality was analyzed. Results There were significant differences in ridge regression equation F test among high (k = 0.159, F= 93.766, P = 0.000, R2 = 0.983), middle (k = 0.069, F = 224.115, P = 0.000, R2 = 0.993) and low (k = 0.173, F= 123.357, P = 0.000, R2 = 0.987) income countries. Except for the total fertility rate of high-income countries in different income countries (t=0.429, p=0.677), the t-test differences of other regression coefficients were statistically significant (P < 0.05). According to the absolute value of the standardized regression coefficient of the ridge regression equation, the top two were the current per capita health expenditure and per capita GDP in high-income countries, the total fertility rate and grain output in middle-income countries, and the total fertility rate and the total graduation rate of primary school students in low-income countries. Conclusion s Per capita GDP and per capita current health expenditure are the main economic andsocialinfluencing factors of infant mortality in high-income countries, but not in middle and low-income countries. Different economic andsocial factors have different degrees of influence on infant mortality in different income countries, and the order of influence is different, so the prevention and control strategies should have their own focus.
Key words： Infant mortality rate; GDP per capita; Current health expenditure per capita; Ridge regression
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